Dolly, holding on to Tropical Storm Strength

Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
5:17 a.m. ET 7/24/2008

Hurricane Dolly made landfall about 20 to 25 miles north of the town of South Padre Island or 35 miles northeast of Brownsville as a borderline category one to category two hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 95 to 100 mph between 1:30 to 2 p.m. CDT.

Dolly now continues to slowly weaken, while moving slowly west-northwest across far south Texas. As of 4 a.m. CDT, the center of circulation was located 95 miles northwest of Brownsville, Texas, and winds very near the center were near 60 mph. Overall winds surrounding the circulation were generally 35 to 45 mph, with some gusts over 50 mph.

A huge concern remains to be flooding rain. Residents should remain on alert for flooding through today, especially along the Rio Grande Valley. Be prepared to move to higher ground if flooding should approach.

Even before the eye’s official landfall, Dolly’s eye wall punished interior and coastal South Texas beginning at the mid morning hours and the lashing continues into this evening.

It should be emphasized that this will be a long duration event for parts of South Texas due to Dolly’s sluggish nature and impacts from Dolly, especially flooding rainfall, will last well into tonight. What is left of Dolly will then move toward the 4 Corner states and could provide heavy rain on Friday.

Locations along the immediate coast such as Port Mansfield, Laguna Vista, Arroyo City, South Padre Island, and Port Isabel have all taken a pounding today.

Other cities such as Brownsville, Harlingen, and Raymondville have also felt the wrath of Dolly.

All power was reported out on S. Padre Island while power lines and power poles are down in Brownsville, Harlingen, and Port Isabel.

Port Mansfield and Rincon recorded 76 mph wind gusts with structural damage as the eye wall slammed ashore. Roof shingles/tiles were reported torn off in several communities.

Other reports included a 70 mph wind gust at Port Isabel and extensive dock and roof damage. Brownsville recorded a wind gust of 68 mph during the height of the Dolly’s landfall.

An unofficial observer east of Matamoros, Mexico recorded winds of 65 mph with gusts to 119 mph.

Wave heights, between 10 and 20 feet, crashed along the shoreline during much of the day. There is a possibility that severe beach erosion occurred. With Dolly now inland, wave heights will continue to decrease.

Even with the extensive damage being reported, the most life-threatening impact from Dolly is becoming the prolific flooding rainfall.

Rain amounts are forecast to exceed 6 inches in some locations, including the South Texas counties of Cameron, Hidalgo, and Willacy where flooding is a certainty. Some isolated spots may receive close to 15+ inches of rain.

A majority of Cameron County, including the city of Harlingen, has already received an estimated 8 to 12″ of rain. Major flooding is occurring in Harlingen on Wednesday evening. Texas state officials are reporting two feet of water in downtown Harlingen with water entering people’s homes in a portion of the city.

In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Genevieve has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. Genevieve is located 575 miles west southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. It may reach minimal hurricane strength on Thursday or Friday as it heads harmlessly west into the open eastern Pacific waters. For the latest on the tropics, stay tuned to The Weather Channel or view updates here on weather.com.

Tropical Storm Dolly slowly organizing

Tim Ballisty, Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
11:28 p.m. ET 7/21/2008

As of 11pm EDT, Tropical Storm Dolly was located about 345 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas with maximum sustained winds near 50 mph. It is moving to the west at 17 mph.

Tropical Storm Dolly has spent the majority of Monday over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico but it struggled mightily to organize and intensify.

With a favorable atmospheric environment in place and Gulf of Mexico water temperatures near 85 degrees, Dolly was expected to strengthen throughout the day. That being said, this evening, satellite images show Dolly is finally getting its act together and thunderstorms are developing around the center of circulation.

Even with its sluggish development, Dolly is still forecast to reach hurricane status some time on Tuesday.

A hurricane warning has been issued from Port O’Connor, Texas, southward to Rio San Fernando, Mexico.

Rain bands from the outer fringes of Dolly will begin to impact south Texas coastline Tuesday afternoon with deteriorating conditions as Dolly approaches.

A landfall is anticipated near the Texas/Mexico border by Wednesday afternoon or evening. Residents of South Padre Island, Brownsville, Harlingen, McAllen, and Corpus Christi (along with surrounding areas) should pay very close to Tropical Storm Dolly as it travels across the western Gulf of Mexico.

Along the East Coast, Tropical Storm Cristobal is strengthening but also moving away from North Carolina’s Outer Banks. Its main impacts along the United States’ East Coast will be rough surf and dangerous rip currents from Cape Hatteras northward to Cape Cod today, while most of the rainfall and strong winds stay away from the coast.

As of 11 pm EDT, Cristobal was located about 360 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, with maximum sustained winds near 60 mph. It is moving to the east-northeast near 16 miles per hour. By Wednesday, Cristobal will likely become extratropical.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, a strong tropical wave is emerging into the Atlantic. This wave will need to be monitored for possible development.

In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Fausto is weakening it drifts away from the Mexican coastline.

As of 8pm PDT, Fausto was located about 590 miles west of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds were 70 mph. It is moving to the west-northwest near 13 miles per hour. Fausto will continue to weaken tonight and tomorrow; likely becoming a depression by Tuesday afternoon.

Elsewhere in the eastern Pacific, at 8pm PDT Tropical Storm Genevieve had sustained winds of 40 mph. Genevieve is 325 miles south of Manzanillo. It is moving to the west-northwest at 18 mph and will continue on this track during the next several days; staying south of Mexico and taking a path similar to Fausto.

Busy for mid-late July

Mark Avery, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
7:00 a.m. ET 7/21/2008

The tropics continue to be active for mid to late July in both the Atlantic and eastern Pacific.

In the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Cristobal is picking up speed and is moving away from North Carolina’s Outer Banks. Its main impacts along the United States’ East Coast will be rough surf and dangerous rip currents from Cape Hatteras northward to Cape Cod today, while most of the rainfall and strong winds stay away from the coast. As of 5 am EDT, Cristobal was located about 110 miles northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, with maximum sustained winds near 50 miles per hour, and is moving to the northeast near 13 miles per hour. Cristobal is currently not expected to strengthen, but is expected to increase its forward motion as it is picked up by the system moving out of the Midwest and be directed towards the Canadian Maritimes.

Also in the Atlantic basin is Tropical Storm Dolly. Dolly formed yesterday from a strong tropical wave that moved through the Caribbean over the weekend, and is now moving across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. As of 5 am EDT, Dolly was located about 150 miles east of Progreso, Mexico, with maximum sustained winds near 50 miles per hour, and is moving to the northwest near 15 miles per hour. Dolly is expected to begin to strengthen once it emerges off the Yucatan Coast later today and begin to track across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico towards the northern Mexico Coast and South Texas Coast with an eventual landfall anticipated Wednesday as a hurricane. Rain from the outer fringes of Dolly will begin to impact the western Gulf of Mexico’s coastline tomorrow afternoon with deteriorating conditions as the low moves closer. Residents of South Texas and northern Mexico should pay close attention to Dolly’s forecast.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, a strong tropical wave is currently located over western Africa and is expected to emerge into the Atlantic later today. This wave will need to be monitored closely for possible development.

In the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Fausto continues to move parallel to the Baja California Coast, bringing rough surf and dangerous rip currents to the Mexican West Coast. As of 2 am PDT, Fausto was located about 405 miles west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, with maximum sustained winds near 100 miles per hour (making Fausto a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale), and is moving to the northwest near 13 miles per hour. Fausto is expected to slowly weaken over the next day or two.

Elsewhere in the eastern Pacific, and area of low pressure south of Acapulco, Mexico is being monitored for possible tropical development over the next day or two.

In the central Pacific, the remnant low pressure from former Hurricane Elida is located about 890 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, but it is lacking any thunderstorm activity and is not expected to regenerate.

Tropical Storm Bertha raked Bermuda with high winds on Monday

HAMILTON, Bermuda (AP) – Tropical Storm Bertha raked Bermuda with high winds on Monday while kicking up choppy surf along the U.S. East Coast.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said the center of the storm was 60 miles (100 kilometers) southeast of the Atlantic island Monday morning, with sustained winds of 65 mph (100 kph) and higher gusts.

JetBlue Airways canceled Monday flights from Bermuda to Boston, Massachusetts, and New York, while American Airlines passengers scheduled to travel to Miami, Florida, and New York were flown out Sunday.

Bertha was moving north near 7 mph (11 kph). It was expected to bring 3 to 5 inches (8 to 13 centimeters) of rain to Bermuda.

Sustained tropical storm-force winds of 55 mph (88 kph) were recently reported at Commissioner’s Point in Bermuda.

Over the weekend, most tourists avoided the storm-whipped surf and rip currents along Bermuda’s southern coast, and authorities began posting signs announcing beach closures. Residents taped up windows and secured boats.

The U.S. National Weather Service said Bertha created tricky waves and currents along U.S. East Coast, and officials said that may have contributed to at least one drowning death Saturday along a New Jersey beach.

Bertha became the Atlantic season’s first hurricane on July 7.

Meanwhile, Elida became the second hurricane of the Eastern Pacific region’s season, scattering rains across Mexico’s central coast.

But the storm, with winds of 80 mph (130 kph), was headed away from land. Elida was centered about 485 miles (785 kilometers) south of the tip of the Baja California peninsula, and it was moving west at near 14 mph (22 kph).

Bertha weakens considerably

Tom Moore, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
5:30 p.m. ET 7/8/2008
Bertha, after briefly becoming a major hurricane, continues to weaken. It’s moving toward the northwest at about 12 mph and at 5 p.m. EDT was centered about 900 miles southeast of Bermuda.

Continued weakening is likely over the next day or two, as is a further slowing of its forward motion and a turn to a more north-northwest track and finally more northeastward.

The factors in Bertha’s weakening include upper-level wind shear, the ingestion of drier air and a path over somewhat cooler water.

At this time, Bertha is expected to miss Bermuda may be only a tropical storm when it passes by to the east.

Elsewhere, there are no disturbances of interest in either the tropical Atlantic or eastern Pacific Basins.

Tropical Weather Update

Bertha could become Atlantic season’s first hurricane

• Storm about 1,200 miles from northern Leeward Islands on Sunday morning
• Bertha has sustained winds up to 50 mph, is expected to grow stronger
• It is too early to say if or where Bertha will hit land

MIAMI, Florida (AP) — Tropical Storm Bertha is approaching warmer waters and is likely to strengthen during the coming days.

At 11 a.m. ET Sunday, Bertha was centered about 1,185 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands in the Caribbean.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with some higher gusting.

Forecasters say Bertha is expected to strengthen during the next few days and could become the Atlantic season’s first hurricane.

The storm is moving toward the west at about 21 mph. It’s still too early to say if or where Bertha will hit land.

The first named storm this year, Arthur, formed in the Atlantic the day before the season officially started June 1 and soaked the Yucatan Peninsula.

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